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Moviegoers Make $39M+ Pact With ‘Alien: Covenant’, 2nd Best Debut For Sci-Fi Series


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Movie Synopsis:
Bound for a remote planet on the far side of the galaxy, the crew of the colony ship Covenant discovers what they think is an uncharted paradise, but is actually a dark, dangerous world — whose sole inhabitant is the “synthetic” David, survivor of the doomed Prometheus expedition.
Release:
May 20, 2017 12:11am

2ND UPDATE, Saturday, 12:12 AM: This weekend belongs to 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant, which at this time is expected to pull in $39 million-$40 million after an industry-estimated $15.2M Friday.

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From a financial perspective, rivals inform me it’s a decent start for a movie which Fox reports to cost in the high-$90M range and has already banked $46.7M overseas. The studio shot Alien: Covenant in Australia and received an estimated $34M in government funds. One thing is for certain: The entire Alien franchise across eight titles will count well north of $1.3 billion at the global box office by the end of this weekend.

Still, as Fox and filmmaker Ridley Scott expand and reboot this franchise, it would be nice to see these opening numbers go up — especially in these die-hard, brand-driven times at the B.O., and we’ll see if that’s the case as the weekend continues with Covenant earning a B CinemaScore, the same grade as Prometheus. Right now, Alien: Covenant is playing like a sequel, with its domestic opening -22% from Prometheus’ $51M domestic start. That prequel marked Scott’s return to the R-rated sci-fi series and fans responded five years ago, giving Prometheus the best stateside start of any Alien title and the franchise’s best overall gross  ($126.5M domestic, $403.3M global) in its seven-title run (that includes spinoffs).

But thank God for Covenant‘s 73% certified Rotten Tomatoes score (about the same as Prometheus); if it was lower, the movie might not be looking so good. Despite all of Scott’s teases and announcements about the film in the past five years — how it was originally titled Alien: Paradise Lost and intended to focus on Noomi Rapace’s Elizabeth Shaw — social media monitor RelishMix attributes the slowdown between Prometheus and Alien: Covenant to the mixed conversation.

“First off, forget Alien series fans, as they are all-in regardless of the materials, cast or special notables that Fox has shared,” RelishMix says. “For the casual moviegoer, there remains sincere confusion over where the series is at this stage. Viewers are wondering if this is a Prometheus sequel, a prequel or some offshoot within the series that has nothing to do with the original characters like Ripley. Others still were wondering if the film was related to Interstellar because of the similarities in the musical score. And, comments specific to the “Crossing” short, directed by Ridley Scott, express more confusion. Will this be part of the DVD extras as a deleted scene? Is it important to see this before Covenant — or after?”

Here is The Crossing:



RelishMix also assessed that Alien: Covenant has a strong social media universe totaling 352M spread across Twitter, Facebook, YouTube views and Instagram followers. Video materials are being passed around at a rate of 20:1, well above the sci-fi genre’s 12:1. The company also adds that Covenant was challenged by a generally inactive cast, with Empire‘s Jussie Smollett being the most popular activated star. Danny McBride across Twitter, Instagram and FB counts over 250K. Michael Fassbender is not socially active.



Warner Bros.

Counterprogramming male titles this weekend is MGM/Warner Bros’ teen romance Everything, Everything at 2,801 locations on track to post a decent $11.7M. The upside here is both studios were responsible in their spending, shelling out an estimated $10M in negative cost before P&A. The M.O. here by MGM and WB is to stoke the early-summer teen crowd again like they did with last summer’s Me Before You, which cost $20M before P&A and grossed a massive $207.9M around the world. However, Everything, Everything‘s domestic start isn’t as high ($18.7M) as Me Before You, which also had the star wattage of Game Of Thrones’ Emilia Clarke, and it doesn’t have the drawing power of say a bestseller adaptation like John Green’s The Fault In Our Stars which opened to $48M and legged to $124.9M (Everything, Everything has a slightly similar premise to Fault: Teen battling disease falls in love).

Rotten Tomatoes is also down between Me Before You and Everything, 58% Rotten to 42% Rotten. But again, both studios can’t be slapped on the knuckles for keeping this as cheap as possible and in the budget range of other teen romance fare. MGM acquired rights to adapt Nicola Yoon’s bestselling teen novel in 2015 and has select international territories.

Regarding the buzz, RelishMix says, “Overall, Everything, Everything has reached its target audience and otherwise sparked conversation about adaptations and mixed-race couples onscreen. In other words, fans of the book will surely be showing up for Everything.” Pic gets an A- CinemaScore, which is just below Me Before You‘s A.


20th Century Fox

Fox’s Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul isn’t doing so hot, coming in well below its $12M industry tracking for an estimated $7.1M. That’s the lowest opening in its cinematic canon, literally half of previous chapter Dog Days. It’s a cheap and tried series, and audiences know that. However, RelishMix saw clouds gathering for this fourthquel heading into the weekend: “Convo for this latest iteration in the Wimpy series is super mixed. Fans are furious at the re-casting of their favorite characters, particularly Charlie Wright, who is taking the reins from Devon Bostick to play the Wimp’s brother Rodrick. A viral hashtag campaign #NotMyRodrick reared its head in conversation, too. Fans are decrying the re-casting as reasons not to see this Long Haul chapter. The fans are even complaining about the re-casting of Greg’s parents.”

Meanwhile, there are B.O. milestones this weekend: Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 will click past $300M by Sunday, with only another $33M to go before it surpasses GOTG. Beauty And The Beast will bag a half billion by Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. and Canada, becoming one of eight titles to pass that mark on the all-time domestic B.O. list. We’ll have more updates as the weekend goes on.

—Anthony D’Alessandro reported on Friday night. Follow him at @Awardstony

Industry estimates as of Friday night for the weekend of May 19-21:

1.). Alien: Covenant (FOX), 3,761 theaters / $15.2M Fri. (includes $4.2M previews)/ 3-day cume: $39M–$40M/ Wk 1

2.). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 4,347 theaters (0)/ $8.7M Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $33.6M (-48%)/Total: $300.3M/ Wk 3

3.). Everything, Everything (WB/MGM), 2,801 theaters / $4.6M Fri. (includes $525K previews)/ 3-day cume: $11.7M/ Wk 1

4.). Snatched (FOX), 3,511 theaters (+10) / $2.25M Fri. (-55%)/ 3-day cume: $7.5M (-62%)/ Total:$32.6M/ Wk 2

5.). Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (FOX), 3,157 theaters / $2M Fri. (includes $150K previews)/ 3-day cume: $7.1M/ Wk 1

6.). King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword (WB/VR), 3,702 theaters / $1.9M Fri. (-63%)/ 3-day cume: $6.35M (-58%)/Total:$26.7M/ Wk 2

7/8) Beauty And The Beast (DIS) 1,792 (-380), $750K (-28%)/3-day: $3.1M (-34%)/Total: $498.5M/Wk 10

The Fate Of The Furious (UNI), 2,287 theaters (-780) / $807K Fri. (-41%) / 3-day cume: $3.1M (-42%) / Total cume: $219.9m / Wk 6

9.) The Boss Baby (Fox) 2,071 (-840), $592K (-39%)/3-day: $2.7M (-39%)/Total: $166M/Wk 8

10). How To Be A Latin Lover (PANT/LG), 948 theaters (-175) / $435K Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $1.8M (-53%)/ Total: $29M/Wk 4

11.). Lowriders (OTL), 365 theaters (+70) / $279K Fri. (-69%) / 3-day cume: $954K (-60%)/Total: $4M/Wk 2

Notables:

Wakefield (IFC), 1 theaters / $4k Fri. / 3-day cume: $14K/ Wk 1

UPDATE, Friday, 11:49 AM: Matinee numbers are starting to come in and industry watchers are revising estimates on the three new pictures out this weekend. Remember, these are early numbers so we are ticker-taping it. First up, is Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant which had a production budget of about $110M. The three-day currently looks to be in the range of $41M to $42M with the third weekend of Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 estimated to take in around $30M (after an $8M Friday) which would bring its domestic total to $296.7M. Alien: Covenant should pull in around $16.5M tonight (which includes the $4.2M preview number).

Meanwhile, MGM/Warner Bros.’ female teen-targeted film Everything, Everything is holding in line with earlier estimates of right around $10M to $12M for the weekend, with some trackers showing it possibly slipping a little. It doesn’t help that the reviews are not stellar. It’s 47% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes.

Fox’s other offering in the marketplace, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul — which will see most of its business over the family going movie days of Saturday and Sunday, is very soft today and estimates are being taken down a notch. So maybe $3.2M today for an $9M to $11M weekend. – Anita Busch

PREVIOUS, Friday, 7:16 AM: 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant ripped into theaters last night at 7 PM with previews of $4.2M from about 3,000 locales, promising a strong Friday and weekend ahead. The Ridley Scott-directed sequel to the 2012 sci-fi pic Prometheus will roll out in about 3,600 locales domestically today after already cashing in more than $46M overseas.

One comp is Mad Max: Fury Road, which bowed on May 15 two years ago and had a Thursday preview of $3.7M and ended up with a Friday tally of $16.6M. That action sequel to another 1979 movie — from another strong director in George Miller, ended the weekend with $45.4M.

Alien: Covenant‘s best comp would be, of course, Prometheus, but when that movie was released in 2012 the industry was not conducting Thursday night early previews yet. That practice only came to be some time after the mass shooting in the Aurora theater on July 20 that year. However, we can tell you that Prometheus opened to a three-day weekend of $51M and ended its run at $126.4M domestically and $403.3M worldwide when it bowed on June 8, 2012. Both Prometheus and Alien Covenant had about the same running time of a little over two hours.

Last night, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 grossed $3.7M as it heads into Week 3.

The studio is unleashing another movie this weekend with fourth installment of its Wimpy Kid franchise. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul opened a little earlier yesterday at 5 PM at about 2,000 locations and took in a mere $150K. This film cost about $22M before marketing and distribution costs, so the studio should be able to roll a profit off of this one. The last Wimpy Kid pic, 2012’s Dog Days, grossed $14.6M in its opening weekend (August 3) and ended up taking in $49M domestically and $77M foreign, so the studio knew this going in. The franchise adapted from the very popular book series seems to be played out. Only 3% of K-12 are out of school today, but that will move up to 27% by next Friday.

The MPAA announced this morning that production on the film, which spent more than 200 days shooting in Georgia, generated over $14M in local economic activity with $4.4M spent on rentals, $1.1M for catering, $700K on transportation and $500K on supplies.

Canada is enjoying a national holiday on Monday, Victoria Day, so about 5% of kids will be out of school, which includes colleges.

Then there is the MGM/Warner Bros.’ teen love story Everything, Everything, a movie based on the novel by Nicola Yoon that was made for around $10M and also had previews at 5 PM. It came in with $525K and is not expected to do that much this weekend. It will widen to 2,801 locales today. In comps, we are looking at Me Before You, which had a Thursday night preview of $1.37M and then went on to gross an $18.7M weekend. This one is about a girl who suffers from a immuno-deficiency disease yet has a crush on a boy who brings her out in the open. Another comp might be the Open Road acquisition Before I Fall, which also was geared towards teens and young women. It was a micro-budgeted movie with about a $10M production cost and took in $850K in previews before its three-day weekend of $4.6M.

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